recovery

Betting on a V-Shaped Recovery, and Winning

(Bloomberg Opinion) — Market commentators are shaking their heads. Wall Street heavyweights are dubious. Federal Reserve officials are warning about dim prospects for a robust recovery of the devastated pandemic economy. Yet even as the U.S. economy falters and Americans suffer more from Covid-19 than citizens of other developed countries, U.S. stocks are outpacing the rest of the world’s equities by a wider margin than at any time in at least 50 years.

Illogical? Appearances would seem to say so. Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said this month that the recovery from the second quarter’s record 32% decline in gross domestic product remains “fragile.” Money management titan Stan Druckenmiller says that the risk-reward calculation for equities is the worst he has ever seen. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Michael R. Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, has warned that strengthening economic

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OPEC+ Bid to Rescue Oil Market Falters as Demand Recovery Stalls

(Bloomberg) — It was meant to be the week when OPEC nations gathered in Baghdad to celebrate the cartel’s six decades as a dominant force in global oil markets.

Instead, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will convene online, and reflect on whether the coranavirus has thwarted their best efforts to keep the market afloat.

After reviving crude prices from an unprecedented collapse over the spring, OPEC+ is seeing the recovery stall and fuel demand falter as the deadly pandemic surges once again. Prices slipped below $40 a barrel last week for the first time since June.

On Thursday, Saudi Arabia and Russia — the leading members of the alliance — will chair a monitoring meeting to assess whether the vast production cuts, which they started easing in August, are still staving off an oil glut. New signs of exporters reneging on the deal aren’t helping.

“There

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What Recovery From COVID-19 Is Really Like, According To Women Who’ve Had It

For the past six months, most of our attention has been focused on how to avoid catching COVID-19, and how to help the people who do contract it survive. What’s getting less attention is what happens after you’ve recovered from the disease. But as of press time, 2,153,726 people have recovered from coronavirus. And many are experiencing unexpectedly long-lasting and intense symptoms.

“This is a very real issue,” says Paul Pottinger, MD, director of the Infectious Diseases & Tropical Medicine Clinic at the UW Medical Center. “Infectious disease doctors around the country have known for a long time that certain viral infections can do this. It’s not unique to COVID, which is good news — it gives me hope.”

While there are no official figures yet on how common persistent symptoms of coronavirus are, Dr. Pottinger says that one in four people who’d had the SARS-CoV-1 virus (which is similar

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Austin Small Business Owners Pessimistic On Coronavirus Recovery

AUSTIN, TX — Austin has the nation’s largest share of small business owners who think they won’t be able to recover from the corrosive economic effects of the coronavirus, according to a study released on Wednesday.

Researchers at LendingTree, the nation’s largest online lending marketplace, analyzed results from the U.S. Bureau of the Census Small Business Pulse Survey before calculating the percentage of small business owners in the 50 largest U.S. metros who believe economic recovery is beyond their reach.

Among the key findings:

  • Neighboring San Antonio ranked second, with 14.9 percent of respondents not believing their business will recover from the pandemic. Moreover, more than 62 percent of San Antonio small business owners believe it will take at least four months before business is back to normal.

  • At the other end of the spectrum, small business owners in some cities do see light at the end of the tunnel

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Raising taxes would endanger economic recovery, Labour tells government

Parliament Live
Parliament Live

Raising taxes would be “dangerous” and make it harder for Britain’s economy to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, Labour’s shadow chancellor has said.

Anneliese Dodds on Wednesday warned that Labour’s support would not be guaranteed if the government went ahead with a rise in capital gains tax, warning against “last-minute decisions around tax without appropriate scrutiny and without proper planning”.

Laying out Labour’s preferred economic strategy for the pandemic she told a seminar that the government should prioritise a return to growth, and that tax rises would be counterproductive reducing demand.

“There’s been some suggestion, before today’s news around capital gains tax, that there could be a kind of generalised income tax, VAT, or national insurance rise and/or cuts to public spending,” she told the online meeting organised by the Institute for Government.

“I think that would be really quite a dangerous move at a time when the

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Five Real-Time Charts Show Signs U.S. Economic Recovery Is Faltering

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. recovery from the coronavirus-induced recession is leveling off and showing signs of faltering only two months into the rebound, a series of real-time economic indicators show.

While the official economic data have been surprising to the upside – including a gain of 4.8 million jobs in June – newer trends suggest those improvements are flattening or even turning down.

With cases rising in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia and Texas, some states are imposing new restrictions on activity or pausing reopening plans. Federal Reserve officials including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester warned this week the accelerating spread of the virus poses new risks.

“People are getting nervous again,” Bostic said.

Real-time economic data from five private and government sources show the economy “looking worse,” said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research. The summer pause isn’t likely to be an

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Florida Has 4th Worst Unemployment Recovery In Country

ACROSS FLORIDA — As recent outbreaks of the coronavirus in states like Florida, Texas and Arizona cause a new wave of shutdowns, MoveOn.org is calling on Congress to extend coronavirus emergency unemployment funding through the end of the year.

The petition has been signed by more than one million people so far.

Without an extension, unemployment benefits are set to expire on July 31.

“Many people who are laid off due to COVID-19 won’t find work for a very long time, maybe never because some jobs lost today won’t be coming back,” reads the petition. “People will need time and resources to learn and develop a new skill. By ending the $600 per week additional unemployment assistance too soon, we will certainly be dooming people to tragic futures. This will have far-reaching ramifications. We need to look out for each other during these unprecedented times. Please let’s help each other

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Stocks make modest recovery despite virus worries

European stocks made modest gains Thursday, one day after a brutal selloff, but US indices struggled on continued worries about a resurgence of coronavirus and mounting job losses in the US.

Oil also recovered some of Wednesday’s five percent tumble on increasing infections stoking demand worries, just as the latest data showed a big jump in US stockpiles for a third week.

Asia extended losses after heavy overnight falls on Wall Street, amid holiday closures in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

There were hefty losses in New York and across Europe on Wednesday on heightened fears of a second wave of the deadly COVID-19 outbreak.

“Stock markets have edged up today after Wednesday’s falls, but there is still a lingering sense of caution over the signs of rising infection rates in the US,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading firm IG.

European markets held onto their gains until

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